Friday, January 13, 2017

Friday's Thoughts and Other Stuff (Possible Events)

Dear Preppers and Survivalists,

photograph by
Adam Jones, Ph.D.

Threat Analysis
Last week, I discussed developing a threat analysis and letting it sit for awhile, so you and your family could consider whether to add or subtract items from the threat analysis.

Possible Events
Of course, once you have your threat analysis, you and your family will need to research the threats. For school children, this will be a wonderful opportunity to use those skill sets learned at school and home ; - )

So, ... What to research?

First, your family is going to need to know about the immediate threats, natural, technological, and adversarial. I want you to think ...


- Hurricane
- Tornado
- Winter Storm
- Blizzard
- Tsunami
- Earthquake
- and such.

Plus, I want you to forget about Supervolcaneos, Coronal Mass Ejections, and an Asteroid Impact, and other 'low probability, high impact events,' for now.


- Carbon Monoxide
- Vehicle Crash
- Home Fire
- Levee Breach
- Train Derailment
- Industrial Chemical Release
- and others

Remember, disregard the nano-technology, Artificial Intelligence, and other 'science fiction disasters,' for now.

Adversarial (Human-Caused)

- Home Invasion (especially 'if' you live in a marginal (bad) neighborhood
- Burglary
- Rape Attempt
- Riot
- Drive-By Shooting
- Car Bombing
- Knife Attack, Terrorist
- Firearms Attack, Terrorist
- and so on

Yes, you guessed right. I want you to forget the dirty-bombs, chemical weapons attack, and nuclear war scenarios, for now.

Next, Step
Needless to say, I left out many, many different events because your area of the world will have different possible events that might affect your family.

So, ... Assign those disastrous events, and get your family to researching.

Make sure to assign age appropriate events to your children because you don't want your young children researching the effects of rapes on women and men.

During the research, there are specific questions, you and your family want answered.

* Can the event happen here? Yes/No (if a No, stop researching the event because it's a waste of time and effort)

* What is the physical nature of the event? Lots of rain, snow, high winds, random violence, and so on.

* What are the effects of the event on people, material, and animals? Types of injuries, building failures (roof collapse from too much snow), malnutrition, food in short supply, and more depending on the event.

* Preventive Measures to reduce the possible effects of of the event? Build an underground tornado shelter, store water and food, receive personal defence training, and ... lots more.

Now, don't go crazy on this research. A 3X5 or 4X6 card should be enough space to list all the information. Unless, ... You want your children, spouse, and yourself to write two, three, and five page research papers, using the MLA style guide.

Hey, it's good practice for college ; - )

Disaster - Disaster Types

Centers for Disease Control - Natural Disasters and Severe Weather

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies  - Types of disasters: Definition of hazard

FEMA - Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (MHIRA)

FEMA: MHIRA - Part I: Natural Hazards

FEMA: MHIRA - Part Two: Technological Hazards

Wikipedia - Natural Disaster

Wikipedia - Anthropogenic Hazard

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