Friday, January 6, 2017

Friday's Thoughts and Other Stuff (Threat Analysis)

Dear Preppers and Survivalists,

photograph by
Corporal Alicia M. Garcia, U.S.M.C.

A few days ago, I wrote about some of the possible events that are facing you and your family, as the President of these United States might see them, in Volume Three, Number One

So, ... If you didn't read it, go and read it then come back.

As you can see, there are many different types of events that your family faces as they get prepared. They are usually grouped into three groups, natural, technological, and (adversarial) human-caused.

The natural events, some people call them disasters, crisis, or ..., are the ones caused by natural events. They are, but not limited to, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, winter storms, tsunamis, climate change, earthquakes, land slides, mud slides, volcanoes, and ...

Technological events are airplane crashes, hazardous material spills, nuclear accidents, car crashes, and ... so on.

Human-caused or adversarial events are revolution, civil unrest, warfare, cyber events, terrorist attack/threat, school violence, and ... financial difficulties like bank runs, stock market crashes, and financial collapse of the World!!!

'Cause you need to know.

Next, each of these groups are unique. Natural disaster events can't be controlled while technological and human-caused events can be prevented. In other words, the hurricane, tornado, earthquake, winter storm is going to happen, no matter what you and your family do, but a fire in your home can be prevented by properly storing matches, flammable liquids, and reducing ignition sources (throwing away trash).

A Few Words of Warning
For most families, they become involved with prepping when one or two events become omnipresent in their lives. For some people, like my mother and father, it was the possibility of a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. For others, it might be the eventual financial collapse of these United States, and for others, it might be an approaching hurricane

In and of itself that is o.k., but there is a problem with focusing on only one or two events. Other events, usually smaller, minor, and more common ones happen to you and your family.

To prevent you and your family from focusing on a insignificant and unlikely event, you should write a ...

Threat Analysis
This document is basically a prioritized list of all the events (threats) that you and your family will face, at home, at work, and while traveling. The priority of the events and the list of events will change, so this document is revised as needed or on a predetermined schedule.

To create a threat analysis, the first thing you and your family do is to list every event that you think can happen to your family. Yes, the whole family because your spouse and your children have unique perspectives that will be helpful.

I like listing everything on one side of a piece of paper, like this ...

List of Potential Events

Once you and your family, at least your partner, have listed all the potential threats to your family, you need to go through the list and prioritize the events from most likely to happen to least likely to happen, like this ...

Prioritized List of Potential Events
Prepper: Surviving the Tough Times Ahead

Needless to say, the above pictures are examples because you and your family are going to have a much longer list.

Just so you know, I don't make recommendations because they may be inappropriate for you and your family's situation. Let me give you and example.

A family living in an apartment reading "I recommend, a family should plant at least five acres of crops (three acres for a garden and two acres for an orchard) for long-term food security." would scoff in wonderment because they don't have access to that amount of land, much less any land.

So, ... Unless I mess up, you will always see 'I suggest ...' because everything, I say, is for you and your family (at least your partner) to think about, before implementing.

Some Suggestions
With that said, I have some suggestions.

First, start having family meeting to talk about family issues, just not prepping. There are several excellent articles on family meeting, in the links, so I'm not going to go into family meetings.

Next, don't push prepping, especially if you're a 'Ooooh, My Goooood!!! The World is Going to Eeeeend, Tommorrrrow!!!!!!-type prepper. This means when your son or daughter suggests to list 'Losing my Boyfriend/Girlfriend,' you list it. It also means to focus on the fun, age appropriate skills, tools, and activities that get your family prepared. Lastly, you can always use the mantra 'This is what our family does' when you force everyone in the family for that first outdoor hike, this spring.

Lastly, a Threat Analysis is a 'living' document. It will need to be revisited, modified, and updated as your family situation changes throughout the years.

So, ... I suggest you set this first attempt aside, so you and your family can think about anything that might be added to the list and its place in the priorities.

Federal Emergency Management Agency - CPG 101, Developing and Maintaining Emergency Operations Plans, Version 2 (home)

Federal Emergency Management Agency - CPG 101, Developing and Maintaining Emergency Operations Plans, Version 2 (document)

Art of Manliness - Creating a Positive Family Culture: How to Plan and Lead a Weekly Family Meeting

Psychology Today - 10 Tips for Holding a Family Meeting

Center for Effective Parenting - Family Meetings

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